Can you explain what a technology roadmap is, and how might it help guide strategic decision-making related to Light Duty Diesel Engines?
In this post, we examine the technology roadmap process for Light Duty Diesel Engine Technology. Technology roadmaps can help organisations understand the future shape of technology by considering why a particular technology use might change, what may change and what is driving that change, and when that change is likely to happen given the current and expected future market drivers. A roadmap can be used to help guide decisions about technology development and guide further research needed. Ricardo uses a technology roadmap process that has been refined and used over a period of 20 years.
What methodology was used for creating the Light Duty Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap?
The Ricardo Light Duty Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap has been developed by the Strategic Consulting Technology Strategy Team in consultation with Technical Specialists. This roadmap has a European focus and spans the period from now until 2035. The roadmap tracks the progress of technology in the market, including if the technology hits a development plateau, a transition to new technology and charts either a decline or continuation of technology.
Ricardo has refined its approach to creating technology roadmaps over more than 20 years. The Technology Strategy Team combine multiple outputs, including information in the public domain, information from Ricardo research programmes and knowledge and expertise from technical specialists. The aim is to roadmap a balanced view of the timing of technology introductions with a clear rationale for the timing of any expected change. Key market and technology drivers are identified in categories using PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legislation and Environment) forces. The team aimed to answer the following questions in the workshop:
- How will European legislation and CO2 targets affect Light Duty Diesel Engine Technology?
- What light-duty diesel engine technology is currently available, and how might that evolve?
- How might emissions legislation affect emissions control?
- Will technology trends for diesel engines, like rightsizing (moderating specific power), continue?
- How will diesel engine design and air handling evolve between now and 2035?
The Ricardo team assess the likely technology development and market drivers and consider them against a timeline of introduction, plateau, continuation or decline. They examine the following:
- Horizon 1: Brainstorming the short-term evolution of light-duty diesel engines, services, and technology.
- Horizon 3: Brainstorming the long-term future vision for light-duty diesel engine technology
- Horizon 2: Brainstorming the steps needed to link Horizon 1 and Horizon 3.
What are the outputs of the Light-Duty Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap workshop?
After the workshop, the analysis is collated, and the output from the three horizons exercise forms the roadmap. The Light-Duty Diesel Engine roadmap details the stages of the lifecycle for engine concepts, engine design, air handling, combustion and emissions control. Key drivers of change for light-duty diesel engines are also mapped, such as the expected changes to European emissions legislation post Euro 6, and the Co2 emissions targets.
Are there some key developments we can expect from Light-Duty Diesel Engines to 2035 according to the technology roadmap?
Moderating specific power (rightsizing) is expected to continue as emissions regulations become more challenging In the near future, diesel engine design will be focussed on economy over performance. The warm-up of aftertreatment will also become crucial for emissions control using methods, including exhaust valve profile switching. To discover the full roadmap for Light-Duty Diesel Engine Technology and to access Ricardo’s other technology roadmaps consider a subscription to RiCK.
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