Feedstock assessment for Sustainable Aviation Fuel and methanol
Challenge
Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are widely regarded as the most viable contributor to the future decarbonisation of the aviation sector. IATA – an industry trade association - estimates they will contribute to 65% of the sector's emissions reductions in the period to 2050.
Equinor, an international energy company, commissioned Ricardo to forecast the future availability of any sustainable biomass feedstocks that have been classed as suitable for gasification, as well as a study of global access to CO2 point source emissions, and an overview of current EU policy towards CO2 as a feedstock.
Approach
After developing a shortlist of the 25 biomass feedstocks listed within 'Annex IX' of the Renewable Energy Directive deemed suitable for gasification, the Ricardo team used a ‘bottom-up’ approach to locate and quantify their availability, anticipate the competing demands from other sectors (e.g., production of combined heat and power), and determine the proportion that could feasibly be secured by Equinor.
Our team also provided cost and price estimates for different feedstocks, taking into account the variety of cost components, the complexity of biomass supply chains, and potential price volatility.
In a parallel exercise, the global availability of CO2 as a feedstock was also mapped, quantified and developed into a database of CO2 point sources with the potential to be utilised for SAF and sustainable methanol production.
Meanwhile, existing and proposed EU strategies, regulations and directives, and derived implications, were investigated and, for selected countries, factors influencing the accessibility of CO2 as a feedstock were analysed, including funding opportunities, market considerations (e.g., prices, competition, business models) and infrastructure availability.
Approach
Upon the completion of the assignment Equinor had gained a global map of sustainable biomass and CO2 feedstock viable for use in producing SAF and sustainable methanol, accompanied by analysis of future opportunities and barriers for securing further feedstock for fuel production.
The research is used to underpin Equinor’s ongoing strategy development, helping to prioritise lower-cost opportunities at earlier stages of investment decisions and deepen their internal understanding of regulatory requirements.