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Digital modelling: Industrial capacity for sustainable biofuels production
Challenge
With biofuels expected to play an important role in Europe’s future transport fuels mix, the European Commission's European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA) wanted to investigate the industrial capacity for sustainable biofuels production across the EU and analyse the factors that contribute to their development within the European Grean Deal and Fit-for-55 package regulatory framework.
A research project was commissioned with three clear objectives: first, collate data about current industrial capacity and longer-term plans; second, provide projections of potential advanced biofuels demand, their supply prospects, and impacts associated with their production; and, finally, identify suitable investments and actions to increase industrial capacity towards the EU 2030 and 2050 climate targets.
Approach
Our digital modelling team formed part of the research team appointed to produce a detailed report into the outlook for drop-in advanced and sustainable biofuels uptake in transport.
We were assigned to provide quantitative modelling of the demand and supply of advanced biofuels using our PRIMES (Price-Induced Market Equilibrium System) suite of models.
For this project, the team used the PRIMES-TREMOVE model to assess the demand for energy from different sources, including fossil fuels, bioenergy sources, electricity and non-biogenic origin fuels. Specifically, the model assessed the demand of different transport sectors for advanced biofuels, considering factors such as policy requirements, technology maturity and expected activity and fleet developments.
Results
The Ricardo models produced a range of biofuels uptake scenarios, with each scenario informed by the most up-to-date policy and regulatory context.
As well as offering an outlook of biofuel demand by different transport sectors, our analysis also delivered projections of supply from various sources and assessed their impact on greenhouse gas emissions.
Using our outputs as core evidence, the research team confirmed the critical role biofuels will play in reducing the EU's transport sector emissions, particularly if technologies such as electric vehicles and other alternative fuels technologies fall short of their uptake expectations.
The authors also surmise that under such conditions, advanced biofuels could account for around 30% of all renewable energy demand in transport in 2030, and that stronger regulatory and financing effort is required to ensure there will be sufficient industrial capacity to scale up advanced biofuel production throughout the EU.
The report, ‘Development of outlook for the necessary means to build industrial capacity for drop-in advanced biofuels’, was published in spring 2024 - click here to access the report (opens in external site).