Supporting long-term strategy development in Jordan

Challenge

Jordan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), updated in 2021, commits the country to a 31% emissions reduction target compared to business as usual by 2030, and incorporates an adaptation vision and objective directly linked to the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) launched in 2017. Most national plans and strategies are focussed on short and medium-term goals in Jordan. The Ministry of Environment recognised the need to consider climate actions over a longer timescale. On behalf of the Government of Jordan, the World Bank commissioned Ricardo to prepare a detailed roadmap for the formulation of a Long-Term Low-carbon and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS or 2050 pathway) for Jordan.

Approach

Ricardo prepared a Roadmap and recommendations report for Jordan’s long-term strategy as a reference guide to support the government and its partners in the LTS development process. The report contained a suggested framework for how an LTS could be structured and developed and what it should contain. This included key information and data that would form the evidence base for the strategy and core processes that underpin development of the LTS including existing practices related to Jordan’s national climate policy, and experience from other countries.

The work included the following elements:

• Assessment of Jordan's national circumstances including socio-economic development, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, sustainable development goals (SDGs), and detailed analysis of gender mainstreaming priorities and opportunities.
• Assessment of Jordan's existing visions and goals from cross-cutting and sectoral plans and strategies. This included an analysis of such visions and goals, and their synthesis into suggested vision themes, with provision of draft vision statement text and recommendations for how this could be further refined.
• Assessment of existing mitigation commitments and baseline emissions, including prior modelling experience in the country and potential future pathways for Jordan based on national priorities and commitments, as well as pathway options informed by international analyses.
• A review and recommendations of modelling tools and modelling needs for an LTS, with recommendations on their suitability in a Jordanian context.
• Undertaking a vulnerability and risk assessment for Jordan, reviewing and analysing data and information across all sectors to provide recommendations on the highest vulnerabilities and suggested adaptation options.
• The development of a suggested framework and approach to develop the LTS, consisting of a set of 15 climate strategy pillars which encompassed all adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development priorities. 
• A comprehensive review and assessment of existing governance structures and set of recommendations based on typical LTS governance needs, including the establishment of new steering committees, a gender task force and a technical task force to lead the LTS development work.
• Suggested stakeholder consultation and engagement, as well as strong governance and institutional arrangements.
• A review of existing citizen engagement processes in Jordan and recommendations for approaches to engage, consult and empower citizens in the LTS development through, for example, formation of a citizen panel.
• Review of the existing MRV system and recommendations for LTS MRV integration.
• A detailed LTS implementation plan including the phasing of activities, necessary steps, key questions, and consultation and technical input needs. This also included high level costing for some key technical components.

Ricardo developed a framework to define the vision which sets the overall goals, objectives, priorities and commitments of the LTS. A vision statement drafted for Jordan articulated the vision as ‘Working to build a resilient, low-carbon, sustainable future for Jordan, with a prosperous green economy, while leaving no one behind.’

The long-term adaptation and mitigation strategy contained details of the LTS. For mitigation, the LTS included a pathway and actions for decarbonisation, which required modelling of decarbonisation pathways, and likely mitigation measures for each sector. A vulnerability and risk assessment was also undertaken to inform the identification of priority measures for adaptation and resilience to the impacts of climate change (the most vulnerable sectors were identified as water, transport, forestry and ecosystems, and tourism).

Results

The project entailed a mixture of desk-based research into good practices and lessons learned, a review and synthesis of current and ongoing activities in Jordan, and stakeholder interviews and inputs to shape the outputs and recommendations. The 2050 Pathway to a Long-Term Strategy for Jordan drew upon analytical work on both adaptation and mitigation to identify requirements for the country to achieve its goals. The report outlined the priorities (or pillars) for achieving the vision, the actions required, and linkages to developmental benefits as the framework for how the country will achieve its vision for long-term climate action. The work was presented to the Ministry of Environment and will be taken forward into the development of the full LTS.

Jordan’s LTS is intended to ensure short-term responses remain aligned to long-term goals in the following ways:

• Provide an opportunity to shift decision-making and strategic thinking to the longer-term perspective
• Place climate change on the highest political agenda 
• Provide a framework for adoption and mainstreaming of climate priorities across all sectors and strategies and ensuring that near-term actions (such as those in the NDC) are consistent with long-term goals
• Bring together existing work on climate change under one banner, helping to demonstrate linkages between sectoral plans, climate policies, NDCs, NAPs, and other long-term priorities.
• Help to unlock new economic opportunities, and better support the changes needed to transition to a low carbon and resilient society (e.g. avoid making decarbonisation costlier and more difficult over the longer term)