Ricardo model used for academic study into future decarbonisation of the global shipping

A modelling tool owned by E3 Modelling (a Ricardo Company) has been cited for its contribution to an independent study into the decarbonisation of the international shipping industry.

The article ‘International shipping in a world below 2 °C’ was published in the May 2024 edition of Nature Climate Change.

The PROMETHEUS modelling tool was one of several resources used to analyse options for reducing emissions from international shipping over the coming decades.

The study assessed the potential impact of low-carbon alternatives to conventional maritime fuels, such as drop-in biofuels, fossil and synthetic alcohols, and green ammonia.

It reported that reductions in annual emissions of around 85% could be achieved by the middle of the century but would be contingent on the industry investing in low-carbon fuels, new motorizations and upgraded storage and bunkering facilities ‘as soon as possible’.

The PROMETHEUS model

PROMETHEUS was one of six integrated assessment models used in the study. Developed by E3 Modelling, it specialises in assessing future interactions between global energy demand, supply and prices.

It can, for example, produce projections of energy demand by different sectors, such as industry and transport. PROMETHEUS can also support impact assessments of specific energy and environment policies at regional or global level, including taxation policies, subsidies, energy efficiency standards and new technology adoption.

The tool was recently enhanced to improve its compatibility with the maritime sector, including an ability to analyse different segments such as dry bulk, general cargo, container ships and tankers.

To view the study (paywall, subscription required): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01997-1

For more information on PROMOTHEUS and E3 Modelling : https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools/prometheus/