Flying High – How aviation needs to adapt to climate change

While the GHG emissions associated with aviation – and measures to reduce those emissions – remain a hot topic, the impact of climate change on the aviation sector has been talked about less. Dr James Davey, Associate Director, Climate at Ricardo, explains why a focus on the risks extreme weather poses to aviation is needed. 

This year has seen a series of climate related emergencies affecting airports and airlines, including catastrophic flooding in Dubai, which caused serious damage and closed the airport, a severe turbulence incident on a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore, and an instance of a runway melting in the heat in Hungary.

With record breaking temperatures in 2023 and 2024, climate impacts are something that the aviation industry needs to take seriously, as the science tells us that extreme weather will become a more frequent occurrence. 

In many regions policymakers and regulators are well aware of the risks posed by climate change and have been taking steps to encourage – or mandate – companies to take action to understand, and act on, climate risk. These include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations on climate disclosures (and the Californian Climate-Related Financial Risk Act) in the United States, similar requirements in the European Union (the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive - CSRD), and draft proposals for climate related financial disclosures in Australia.

More and more large companies – and potentially smaller organisations who form part of their supply chain – need to understand and disclose financial risks, including physical risks. In the UK, strategic infrastructure – including 10 airport operators and the National Air Traffic Control Service – are required to report to the Government on both the climate risks they face, and how these will be adapted to, and when. Due to a change in the way in which the Government analyses climate risks, the next set of these reports must be provided by 31st December this year.  

When thinking about climate risk – and particularly physical risk – there are some key questions companies need to ask themselves. An obvious first step is to ask, “What do regulators and policymakers in the regions we operate in require us to do?”

Companies that are simply responding to policy risk are missing the big picture. What are the expectations of your shareholders and stakeholders? How have your insurance premiums changed, and how might they change in future? How might climate impact on your business model and growth strategy? Most importantly of all, how are the probabilities of high impact weather events, that could harm your operations and staff, changing? What can you do to mitigate the risks? For example, a 10oC change in air temperature makes a 3.2% change in air density. This has the potential to impact the payload on flights and take-off distances. How is your business dealing with this risk? How are you aligning the action you take on energy and carbon with the investments you make on resilience, to maximise synergies?  

At Ricardo we understand that climate risk starts with people

Focusing on staff and passengers, we seek to understand how a changing climate can have a negative (or positive) impact on individuals, and what can be done to reduce the risks and grasp opportunities.

Using scenario analysis we assess different possible climate futures, and drill down into potential issues with assets and operations. Whether reporting to Defra, or looking to disclose in alignment with the Taskforce on Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) (or its chunkier cousin, the IFRS S2 standard) or developing a fully-fledged Climate Transition Plan, we can help. We’re leading from the front to support you to identify the full range of risks and opportunities – transition and physical – and working with you to develop action plans to reduce emissions, refresh your climate strategy, and build your climate resilience. 

Highlands and Islands Airports (HIAL)

Ricardo worked with Highlands and Islands Airports (HIAL), the organisation responsible for 11 regional airports providing lifeline service to some of Scotland’s remotest communities across the Highlands and Islands, to produce a bespoke tool that is being used to assess climate risk on the airports operations and make well-informed, strategic decisions on how to mitigate that risk.   

The bespoke tool is part of HIAL’s first ever Climate Change Adaption risk assessment incorporating a climate vulnerability and risk assessment, which assessed HIAL’s climate-related physical risks within each airport’s operations, across the local infrastructure and the businesses strategic functions. The tool is now embedded within HIAL’s operational risk management processes.  

Ultimately, the aim of the project was to understand current and future climate-related risks and identify mitigations and further adapt actions and investments.  
Read more about the HIAL project: Ricardo's climate action plan: A blueprint for airport climate resilience 

Inaction leads to increased risks, and you can be blindsided by events that you have failed to forecast. The advice from scientific bodies in all major economies is clear – there needs to be a rapid move towards adaptation action if the worst impacts of climate change are to be addressed. Understanding your climate risks is not a box-ticking exercise - it's about ensuring that investments are appropriate for the future , that they are made in the right place and on the right technologies. It is also about avoiding much larger costs in the future, or worse, dealing with the consequences of a flood, storm or wildfire that you didn’t prepare for.