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Creative Scavengers: Ricardo's scenarios for 2035 explained
06 Dec 2022
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Creative Scavengers is a world characterised by disruption and sporadic evolution, with a continued reliance on ICE technologies and a focus on recycling and reuse. We need cost-effective solutions to high-level, cross-sector challenges.
A world shaped by disruption and with only sporadic evolution. Geopolitical fractures have persisted, along with social unrest, political battles over the supply of critical raw materials and poor employment levels compounded by the deployment of AI. Multiple economic and industry shocks have included a global battery recycling and disposal scandal dubbed ‘Batterygate’. Low GDP, economic stagnation and an environment in which consumers are suspicious of brands, cautious and financially challenged, have contributed to a slowdown in mobility sector revenues with new players struggling. Responses to critical climate issues are disconnected and energy storage costs are at a record high. A major growth in recycling, repurposing and reuse approaches, driven by necessity, has been successful in improving the life cycle footprints of many goods and services: simple, low-cost, reusable solutions are found in many sectors. More people use public transport but the internal combustion engine is still the dominant propulsion technology.
- Intensified droughts and extreme weather events
- Disparate response to climate change
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Geopolitical fractures
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Political battles over the supply of critical raw materials
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Major growth in recycling, repurposing and reuse approaches
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Conflict and trade wars
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Multiple economic and industry shocks including “battery-gate” (a major global recycling and disposal scandal)
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Internal combustion engine remains dominant propulsion technology
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Different regions using different fuels
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Culture of reuse, make-do, mend
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Food supply issues
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Economic stagnation
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Migration crisis
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Social unrest
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Upswing in use of public transport
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Consumers are suspicious of brands
"The Creative Scavengers Scenario is a tough place to live - a world shaped by disruption. here’s a lot of geopolitical fracture, along with social unrest, political battles over the supply of critical raw materials and poor employment levels compounded by the deployment of AI. In this scenario, responses to critical climate issues are disconnected. There’s a major growth in recycling, repurposing and reuse, which has improved the life cycle footprints of many goods and services – but this is driven by necessity. The internal combustion engine has prevailed because energy storage costs remain high and technology advances have been only sporadic.”
Angela Johnson, VP and Head of RSC EMEA
"Some aspects of this scenario are already playing out in our world today. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was more than a dark day for Europe. Among its consequences has been the closure of Ukraine’s two leading suppliers of neon, which produce about half the world’s supply of the key ingredient for making chips; and traders avoiding sourcing new cobalt from Russia. The impact will inevitably be shortages and sharp price rises. our reality now is that a raw materials shortage is set to bring severe disruption to the electric vehicle battery supply chain, with vital rare earth metals unavailable, limited or being hoarded by some manufacturers. And in terms of the global economy, Nomura is predicting that a US recession is more than a 50/50 possibility this year. World Bank President David Malpass has gone even further and pessimistically stated that for many countries, recession will be hard to avoid."
Adrian Greaney, Global Chief Technical Officer
Angela Johnson
