Energy infrastructure vs climate change: increasing resilience

Climate change is profoundly impacting societies and energy systems globally and a significant increase in extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods, has been observed over the last decade. Risks to electricity systems in particular are escalating and becoming increasingly difficult to predict. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (2022) identified the risks to individuals and the economy from climate-related power system failures as a high priority for adaptation as extreme weather events are already the primary cause of extended electricity outages globally, with examples as recent as the devastating flooding in Europe and wildfires in California.

“Building climate-resilient energy infrastructure is crucial as extreme weather events increasingly threaten energy systems, demanding urgent adaptation and innovation,” says Dr Yahya Naderi of Ricardo.

In 2021, record-breaking temperatures exceeding 49°C in Canada placed immense strain on power grids, leading to widespread outages and increased cooling demands. In 2019, wildfires in Australia, exacerbated by prolonged drought and extreme heat, damaged transmission lines and power stations disrupting the electricity supply for thousands of households.

But it’s not just high temperatures causing issues. Hurricane Maria in 2017 devastated Puerto Rico’s power grid, leaving the island without electricity for months and highlighting the vulnerability of ageing infrastructure; Hurricane Katrina in 2005 damaged nearly 20% of US oil refining capacity, and the Trans-Alaska pipeline suffers persistent disruptions due to extreme cold.

Electricity demand increases during extreme temperatures due demand for heating or cooling, while high velocity storms cause widespread damage to power lines, leaving homes and businesses without electricity, some for several days. Overhead powerlines are clearly in a state of vulnerability to extreme weather events which are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change, but the increasing reliance on electricity for heating and transport, coupled with the growing proportion of renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, makes the energy supply even more susceptible to the unpredictable nature of the weather conditions.

Energy infrastructure – classified as critical assets due to their role in key societal functions, such as health, safety, security and economic stability – can and do fail due to natural disasters or accidents, with huge consequences for all society members. Additionally, the interdependence between electricity generation and water resources further amplifies the vulnerabilities of energy systems. Here, Dr Yayha Naderi, Principal Consultant and expert in Energy Infrastructure, considers some of the direct and indirect impacts of extreme heat and water scarcity on energy infrastructure.

Direct Impacts

Extreme heat can directly affect energy infrastructure in several ways. This non-exhaustive list explores some of the key issues.

Infrastructure failures

Prolonged exposure to high temperatures accelerates wear and tear on energy assets, increasing failure rates. This includes insulation degradation, overheating from inadequate cooling, and equipment operating under higher stress due to increased demand.

Lower operating efficiency

Rising temperatures reduce the efficiency of generation, transmission, and storage systems, with renewable energy sources being particularly affected – solar power plants are especially vulnerable as elevated temperatures lower their generation efficiency. Additionally, transformers and other components in transmission and distribution networks experience efficiency losses when operating under high temperatures.

Reduced capacity

Electricity generation, transmission and distribution networks experience a decline in power generation and/or transfer capacity as generators and cables must operate at lower load percentages to prevent overheating. Elevated ambient temperatures exacerbate this issue, leading to reduced power carrying capacity across the network.

Device malfunction

Components such as transformers, sensors, and protection units become increasingly susceptible to faults when exposed to heatwaves and extreme temperatures. leading to potential failures in system monitoring and protection mechanisms.

Thermal expansion and mechanical degradation

Extreme heat can cause thermal expansion of the metal parts leading to reduction of tensile strength, and accelerated degradation over time.

Shorter lifespan for equipment

Extreme heat accelerates thermal aging in components such as transformers, substations, and energy storage units, leading to shortened operational lifespans. Additionally, other energy assets may experience accelerated aging due to increased thermal stress and inadequate insulation, further compromising their reliability.

Maintenance & reliability issues

Extreme heat complicates maintenance efforts and risks worker safety, whereas bypassing maintenance during periods of high temperatures increases the risk of cascading failures due to the interconnected nature of the equipment.

Other indirect impacts include:

• Increased demand for cooling
• Increased stress on energy storage and grid infrastructure
• Impact of water resource limitations

Enhancing Climate Resilience in the Energy Sector

Ricardo has been proactive in addressing climate change and resilience, working globally with policymakers and organisations in the energy sector.

Ricardo recently worked with a national government Energy Ministry to assess the challenges and risks posed by heatwaves and extreme heat on the country’s energy assets, including electricity, gas, and hydrogen infrastructure. This work involved a systematic rapid evidence assessment of relevant literature followed by a vulnerability assessment based on the sensitivity and adaptive capacities for each individual energy asset.

Each energy infrastructure component was assigned a vulnerability rating, with information gathered through extensive stakeholder engagement. The study mapped potential exposure to extreme heat using projections of maximum air temperature under three global warming scenarios (1.5°C, 2°C, and 2.5°C). The impact assessment then combined vulnerability and exposure data to map the potential effects of extreme heat on energy assets under these scenarios.

The list of potential adaptation options to address extreme heat within the energy system were critically reviewed to determine their contribution to adaptation through two factors: reduction of vulnerability and reduction of exposure, enabling the development of asset specific adaptive measures.

In parallel, Ricardo’s Data Science team has leveraged advanced machine learning to develop a predictive model for asset failures based on weather projections. By analysing past data on temperature, precipitation, and asset failures, the model can predict potential faults in power systems. Testing on previously unseen data has shown high alignment between predictions and actual failures.

Building on its extensive experience, Ricardo has recently secured international funding to conduct a climate resilience and geographical hazard assessment – focusing on floods and extreme water-related disasters – and a resilience plan for the energy sector. This initiative aims to identify solutions through pre-feasibility studies, cost-benefit analyses, and global best practice in developing climate-resilient infrastructure. The study will support governments and stakeholders by enhancing geospatial databases of climate risks and vulnerabilities, strengthening disaster risk management capacities and informing future investments to improve climate resilience in the energy sector.

Collaboration is key

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events highlight the urgency of climate adaptation in energy infrastructure. Extreme heat and water scarcity pose direct threats to power generation, transmission, and storage, while rising electricity demand further strains grid stability. The UK’s reliance on renewable energy sources also necessitates resilience measures to ensure a reliable and secure power supply.

To address these challenges, proactive adaptation strategies are essential. Strengthening infrastructure through enhanced cooling technologies, predictive maintenance using AI, and diversifying energy sources will improve system resilience. Additionally, policy interventions should incentivise climate-resilient infrastructure investments and integrate climate risk considerations into national energy planning.

Ricardo’s work in assessing vulnerability, mapping climate risks, and developing predictive models exemplifies the role of technical expertise in shaping resilient energy systems. However, a collaborative approach involving policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers is crucial for implementing effective adaptation measures. By integrating resilience strategies, energy systems can better withstand future climate challenges, ensuring long-term sustainability and security.

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