Delivering Warsaw’s first Low Emission Zone

Air quality and economic modelling to assess the impact of Low Emission Zone (LEZ) or Clean Transport Zone (SCT – Strefy Czystego Transportu) options in Warsaw incorporating transport, satellite and remote sensing data for monitoring, and a health impact assessment and cost benefit analysis to consider the wider impacts.

“Air quality is a key issue for a number of cities all around the world. We decided to cooperate with the Clean Air Fund to learn from the experiences of others' actions aiming to curb transport pollution. We will undertake serious steps by implementing the LEZ, therefore the report prepared by Ricardo will be an important input to make the right decisions.” Michał Olszewski, Warsaw Deputy Mayor

Challenge

Polish cities are facing serious problems with air quality. Poland was responsible for 36 out of the EU’s 50 most polluted cities in 2018. The country’s capital, Warsaw, is one of the most polluted cities – with exposure to air pollution having a health-related cost to society of an estimated €4.2 billion every year.  In addition, it has a vehicle ownership rate of 859 per 1,000 inhabitants, which is one of the highest rates in Europe, with a growing influx of vehicles from outside of the city. As a consequence, the city has been striving to set up an ambitious low emission zone by 2024, but in a way that does not disproportionately impact groups of individuals or businesses. Through the Breathe Warsaw programme, which aims to strengthen data and provide technical assistance to improve air quality across Warsaw, the Clean Air Fund has supported Ricardo to help the city achieve this ambition.

Ricardo has advised many cities on the implementation of zero or low emissions zones and clean air zones (CAZ) around the world with a view to improving urban air quality. The UK's first zero emissions zone, which Ricardo proposed with Oxford City Council, went into effect on 9 streets of Oxford in February 2022. Our air quality specialists also supported London in the assessment of its ULEZ (ultra low emission zone) and have been working with local authorities in Bradford, Southampton and Cardiff to complete CAZ feasibility studies. This experience has allowed us to understand the challenges and benefits of creating strong evidence to support the implementation of air quality measures. It was the ability to transfer this experience to the Polish context that was key to the success of the project.

Approach

For several years, the City of Warsaw has been in the process of developing plans for the implementation of a Low Emission Zone in the centre of the city. The scheme would affect all vehicle types equally and be based on a full vehicle ban (with associated fines). 

To understand the air quality and economic impacts of various LEZ options, Ricardo carried out an impact assessment study to provide recommendations for policymakers to support the adoption of a final scheme. 

The study involved modelling the impact of the LEZ on concentrations of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂ in 2026, the anticipated year of implementation. Behavioural assumptions, encompassing responses like vehicle upgrades and changes in travel patterns, were incorporated into the model, accounting for factors such as route diversion or mode shifts prompted by the LEZ. 

The subsequent project phase featured an economic analysis of the LEZ, comprising a health impact assessment, a cost-benefit analysis, and a distributional analysis of business impacts. The most significant impact identified was mortality associated with NO₂ exposure, emphasising the overall health and financial benefits derived from the implementation of the LEZ.

This impact assessment produced by Ricardo’s team provided city officials with invaluable insights for deciding on the most effective LEZ option to adopt.

Results

2026 projections from the project indicate that implementing the LEZ scheme will provide large reductions in NO₂, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 pollutant concentrations across the City of Warsaw, with the largest decreases within the LEZ boundary, which are estimated to be about double that outside the zone.

After reviewing public feedback and analysing Ricardo’s reports, the City’s authorities voted to introduce the scheme from July 2024. The deadline to comply with local measures was subsequently postponed to allow more time for local owners of vehicles that do not meet the new emission standards to replace them.

Download reports

Breathe Warsaw Low Emission Zone Assessment - Summary report
Breathe Warsaw Low Emission Zone Assessment - Final Report
Appendix 1: Extension to Impact Assessment