Informing future NDCs and the global climate change stocktake
The NDC Aspects programme will provide inputs to the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement (PA) and support the potential revision of existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as well as the development of new NDCs for the post 2030 period. The project focused on four industry systems based on the high-levels of GHG emissions produced and the difficult to decarbonise. The sectors included:
- Transport & mobility (land-based transport and international aviation & shipping)
- Emission-intensive industries
- Buildings
- Agriculture, forestry and land-use,
The analysis included reviewing the sectors interaction with the energy industry (supply and sector engagement)
The programme engaged with country partners to co-create evidence-based narratives with sector experts and stakeholders. The narratives were then translated into global pathways informing the Global Stocktake, as well as national pathways for strategically selected countries for each of the four sectors.
As part of the analysis a number of key areas were considered, which included the transformation challenges and opportunities of the sector (economic, technological, political/institutional, capacity and awareness), experiences with the implementation of the first round of NDCs, as well as model-based quantitative analyses.
Ricardo energy and economic modelling experts supported the assessment of global climate change mitigation pathways and the emission, energy-system and socio-economic implications. This included providing global benchmarks and indicators as a point of reference for more detailed sectoral and national-level analysis. The research from Ricardo's experts focused on buildings, international bunkers (both aviation and maritime) and the development of national climate policy pathways for Tier-2 countries (Morocco, S. Arabia, Japan, Iran, Nigeria, Turkey).