What is a technology roadmap, and how might it help guide decision making around Automated Driving?
Technology roadmapping is a technique used by major multi-nationals, SMEs, government agencies and more to help guide strategic decision making. In this post, we take a look at technology roadmapping for Automated Driving. Technology roadmap examples, like the Ricardo Technology Roadmaps available with a subscription to RiCK™, are a key tool for clarifying the why, when and what debate of the future shape of technology. They can be used to help guide research and development decisions. Ricardo’s technology roadmap process has been utilised and refined for over 20 years.
What methods have been used for creating the Automated Driving Technology Roadmap?
This roadmap has been produced and developed by Ricardo’s Strategic Consulting Technology Strategy Team in consultation with Ricardo’s Global Technical Specialists. The roadmap is global but focuses on the leading markets of US, EU, China, Singapore and Japan. The roadmap spans the period from 2020 to 2035, looking at what technology is at an introductory stage or limited pilot stage through to its transition to broad deployment.
The Ricardo method for developing technology roadmaps combines public domain information with the input and experience of technical specialists. Ricardo runs workshops with inputs from public domain information alongside knowledge from Ricardo research and development programmes, knowledge of market drivers and the experience of our technical specialists.
The team producing the roadmap identify key market and technology drivers using PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technology, Legislation and Environment) forces. In the workshop, specialists seek to answer the following with regard to automated driving:
- What potential future automated technologies are there and how mature are those technologies?
- What are the key use cases and applications for automated driving technology?
- What is the business cases for those use cases?
- What are the barriers to adoption of automated driving?
The team assess the likely technology development and market introduction and complete a review of the activities of key companies in the automated driving industry.
The team then assess the market drivers against a timeline. They will look at:
- Horizon 1: Brainstorming the short-term evolution of automated driving products, services, and technologies.
- Horizon 3: Brainstorming the long-term future vision of automated driving.
- Horizon 2: Brainstorming the steps needed to link Horizon 1 and Horizon 3.
What is the output of the Automated Driving technology roadmap workshop?
Following the workshop, the team collate the analysis and output from the three horizons exercise and begin to form this into a roadmap. The roadmap details the stages of the product lifecycle for each category of the market for different autonomous driving levels. It roadmaps the lifecycle from the first introduction to market, the transition to maturity with adoption from several OEM’s, through to the transition to other newer technology. It charts the development of limited pilots and trials to more extensive applications through to continuity or decline.
SAE J3016 defines six levels of Automated Driving (AD), L0-L5; ADAS features are classified as L0-L2 and L3-L5 refer to autonomous systems.
The automated driving technology roadmap also looks at levels not defined by SAE such as Level 2+. The emerging level L2+ commonly refers to a system capable of prolonged lateral and longitudinal control. For example, the human driver may not need to have their hands on the steering wheel, but it relies on the driver for fallback. The driver must always monitor the road. In a Level 3 system, the driver is not required to monitor the road but should be ready to intervene if required. In practice, the time it takes to hand-over control means the system must be capable of fallback for a short duration.
What are some of the key developments we can expect from Automated Driving to 2035 according to the technology roadmap?
The map charts the expected product lifecycle for urban mobility, privately-owned passenger cars and freight. While urban mobility Level 4 robo-taxis and shuttles with safety drivers are already being piloted in limited trials, the technology roadmap predicts they are expected to have wider commercial deployment in 2028. Level 4 automated parking for privately-owned passenger cars is anticipated to transition to wider commercial deployment as early as 2024.
Access to the full technology roadmap for Automated Driving and full access to Ricardo’s other technology roadmaps is available via subscription to RiCK.
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